September Box

Welcome to our 162 new subscribers since our last newsletter. I'll keep this fun, light, and informative. Did a friend forward you this? Subscribe here.

Kumusta! (“Hi” in Tagalog)

Welcome back. Let’s jump in.

Funding Announcement 🤑 

Congrats to Sea Monsters on raising $30,000 from a FirstLook investor! This team is highly talented, and the product tastes great. I am 100% getting this for my kids, it’s a way healthier snacking option.

Join The Rocket Ship That Inspired SpaceX❗

FirstLook is hiring a Social Media and Marketing Intern. I’m looking for an absolute killer. An “A-Player” that wants to use FirstLook to springboard their career into Venture Capital. This is a paid role with a stupid dumb big amount of room to grow.

The Rest of the Newsletter 👀

Wow, the response I got from our last newsletter unpacking the pitfalls of investing in hot deals was incredible. Apparently fighting for the 99.9% of founders struck an emotional chord. Who’d a thought?!

I had such a good time unpacking the contrarian bets of Siete, Liquid IV, and Halo Top that I think I’ll make that a more regular segment. Who should I do next, AG1?

A quick note- contrarian investments can later become hot deals. Liquid IV started out contrarian, but later rounds turned into what the industry calls “party rounds.” Everyone starts jumping in including celebs and athletes which is usually a signal it’s a party round. Unclear whether the risk was worth the ROI in that round. Nevertheless, a return is a return and we should all be happy when a consumer brand exits.

Are There Times We Should Pay Up?

There is an argument to be made for when investors should in fact pay up on a hot deal. The debate is fascinating, and is as old as time. It’s one of Harry Stebbings favorite questions on the 20VC podcast. He even created an entire episode on it. Let’s break this down, and then I’ll give you my opinion in relation to consumer goods (CG) investing.

There are primarily two camps here, the 'Yes, pay up’ types and the ‘No, not worth it’ folks. Then one subgroup we’ll call the ‘I’m paying up?’ people.

There are also a lot of nuances to consider here. For the sake of keeping this newsletter short and sweet just like you asked, I’ll try to distill things down.

The ‘No, Not Worth It’ Crowd

These investors are very price discipline, and tend to skew later stage. If a valuation is too high, even if it’s a great opportunity, they pass. They are very numbers driven and feel the risk isn’t worth the potential ROI.

Their math is largely drive by them underwriting to what they believe the investment outcome will be, coupled with the fact that many startups who appear to be great still go on to fail or not reach pinnacle success. For VC firms, they only have so many shots on goal, and so it’s not worth taking the shot as the math doesn’t math in relation to their portfolio construction strategy.

Overall I’d say these folks are so numbers driven that they approach venture investesting as more of a science than an art, and they don’t succumb FOMO. From everything I’ve gathered over the years, this group is the minority.

The ‘Yes Pay Up’ Crowd

This group is driven by all the exceptions on why to pay up. This makes sense given how the VC power law works, and essentially every massive winner seems to be… an exception or outlier.

The most common argument is that massive winners essentially blow the doors off so much that it doesn’t matter if you overpaid to get in. Whether you got a 2000x return instead of a 3000x return, who gives a sh!t, you’re rich! This pic from a recent Rex Woodbury post is a fun reminder, and this is only just a few recent consumer tech IPOs:

They key argument for the ‘Yes Pay Up’ crowd is that VC is an outlier business, and the ‘No Not Worth It’ crowd is failing to underwrite just how massive some exits can become.

All that said, the ‘Yes’ crowd typically only pays up when they believe there is a strong reason or exception to pay up. Otherwise most investors follow discipline strategies where they regularly pass on hot deals with inflated valuations.

To all the anti-pay up folks who’ve made it this far and still think you should never pay up…here is a quantitative analysis of why you should. I shared this with a very price sensitive angel once…they got so fired up 😬

The ‘I’m Paying Up?’ Crowd

These can be new investors who don’t quite have their valuation compass calibrated yet. They get lucky enough to see a hot deal, feel an overwhelming sense of excitement because it has many great signals, the cap table or current round is plentiful, and thus FOMO sets in.

This doesn’t happen to just new investors either. It can sometimes be the majority of investors. 2021 and 2022 are years where valuations went bonkers, but folks kept paying up! Why? Because everyone was doing it, and so it felt normal, and fireworks were exploding all over, and it was just a wild time to be investing. All this culminates into BUBBLES (like what’s happening in AI right now).

Hindsight is always 20/20. It can be tough to reel in emotions during bubble times. When an investment later goes bust, wise investors realize their mistakes. Amatures, meanwhile, chalk it up as a fluke. “So many others jumped in, and there’s no way all of us could have been wrong? Right? Right?!” WRONG. It was a hot deal, and folks didn’t take the time to ask themselves if it was the right one to pay up on.

So How Should You Play Your Cards?  

If you’re going to pay up, there are a few key things to consider:

First, does the startup play in a very large market? If they’re in a small market, it becomes quite difficult to have a blow-the-doors-off sized exit. The startup must capture an excessively large part of the market, and the nature of capitalism makes that difficult to achieve.

Second, ask why the price is high. Is it because of the current cycle/bubble of the market, because other smart investors maybe see something special, or because the other investors are big dogs like a16z or Insight who can overpay because they’re playing a different game?

Lastly, and maybe most importantly, are the founders a once-in-a-generation type? Do we have another Zuck or Jeffy Bezos on our hands? Is this founder borderline delusional, but in a good way like AirBnB’s Chesky? Are they a ruthless killer like Uber’s Kalanick? The only way to find that out for yourself is to meet them.

It’s funny how literally everything about venture investing ALWAYS comes back to meeting and investing in exceptional founders. If this meme makes you feel frustrated, it’s because you’re in the middle 🙃

Paying Up in Consumer Goods Investing

FirstLook is your #1 destination for consumer goods investing, so let’s cover our world.

In my opinion, it’s rarely wise to pay up in CG like it can be in tech. Exits here can be wicked massive, but typically have easier outcomes to predict versus tech. If you start a new mac & cheese brand, it’s unlikely there will be a big enough shift in consumer behavior where mac & cheese magically becomes a way bigger deal.

The only exception here is whether the odds of an exit are substantially stronger. Then the risk-to-reward ratio remains neutral. Otherwise, to jump in a hot round where the odds of an exit aren’t that much more likely is just a poor investment imo.

There are exceptions though, and when I would in fact consider paying up…

• New Category - are they creating a total new category where it’s relatively unknown how many people will become customers? Ex: Oatly ($10B), Vital Proteins ($1B)

• Breakthrough - Has there been a breakthrough in production, technology, or a business model that will become a big unlock? Ex: Hims & Hers ($1.6B), Dollar Shave Club ($1B), Warby Parker ($6B), Allbirds ($2.2B at IPO), Juul ($12B)

• Tech Mixed In - Is there a tech aspect mixed into the product? Ex: Oura Ring ($5B val), Ring ($1B), Nest ($3.2B)

• Complete Overhaul - Is the startup completely overhauling a quiet or boring category? Ex: Beats by Dre ($3B), Figs ($4.4B), Away ($1.45B), Yeti ($1.6B)

• “Brand” - Is the startup creating a true “brand” that can transcend categories and thus expand the types of products they sell? Ex. Supreme ($2.1B), Glossier ($1B+), RedBull ($19B)

• Founder - is the founder truly remarkable? Ex. Liquid Death ($1.4B), Oculus VR ($2B)

In Conclusion

For early-stage investing, there are instances where it may make sense to pay up. If you feel there is a generational exit potential, then sometimes it makes sense to jump in even if the round is a little hot and pricey.

What is NOT worth investing in is a pricey deal that is simply pricey because it’s hot and driven by FOMO. Pause and ask yourself why that price is high, and why folks are jumping in.

Paying up in consumer is a harder sell given outcomes are traditionally easier to predict. Amazing outcomes do happen though, and that largely stems from meeting and investing in incredible founders with big visions!

And to officially wrap up, here is Nick Woodman’s favorite VC scoreboard:

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Founder Pro Tip of the Month 💡

Founders, for the love of sanity, please stop with the unnecessarily high valuations. I’m begging you. Here’s why it’s a bad idea despite your desperation to hold onto more equity:

1. It makes investors think you’re not serious. Investors will invest in crazy, but then you and your vision must be crazy. Otherwise if you have a high valuation and they can’t smell crazy anywhere, then you’re simply “not a serious person.” - Logan Roy

2. The ROI to risk ratio is off. Investors will experience dilution in subsequent rounds, which kills their ROI. Starting out with a high valuation already puts them behind the 8-ball, and they then consider risk more serious.

3. You create an unnecessarily high bar for what you must grow into. Founders should always aim to double their previous valuation. If your starting number is high, the magic of doubling creates a very difficult road ahead.

4. THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON - a high valuation means it will take you longer to raise, which means it will take longer to get back to building, which means it will take you longer to exit! This compounds with each round. Please re-read that again.

I get it, you want to become rich. I feel you. But trust me, basic math and father time are not on your side. I will dedicate an entire newsletter to this soon as it’s worth unpacking with numbers and examples.

Did a friend forward you this and now you want to join?

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August Box Brands 🚀‏‏

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allyoos

Founded by Samantha Denis  |‏‏‎ 📍NYC - Shop / Instagram / Linkedin / Launch  Video

How We Met Them: Via our bff Ally Case!

One Liner ✍️ — We are the Sunday dinner of clean hair care.

Discount Code: Use “FirstLook” to get 20% off sitewide

‎‎‎‎‏‏‎What made them stand out: Sam spent 18 years as a stylist and colorist and 5 years on the Product Development team at Bumble and Bumble. Her skill set is diverse which is helpful in the early days of building a brand where founders have to do a lot with a little. allyoos products are made with clean ingredients for multiple hair types, and for under $30, which makes it accessible for mass market. Lastly, Sam has a knack for striking strong partnerships such as launching in Rumble Boxing studios, and key activations including events at Soul Cycle, The Well, Gurney's Montauk, TEREZ x TORCHD, SWOON, Little Words Project, and Beyond Yoga among others. I’m excited to see where this brand goes.

Request An Intro (Investors only)

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Ashunta Sheriff Beauty

Founded by Ashunta Sheriff-Kendricks |‎‎‎‎‎ ‎‎‎‎‎📍NYC - Shop  /  Instagram  /  TikTok  /  Linkedin  / Founder Video

How We Met Them: Via their signup on the FirstLook.vc

One Liner ✍️ — Empowering Ageless Beauty with Inclusive, Innovative, and Life-Proof Essentials.

Discount Code: Use ILOVEFIRSTLOOKVC20 for 25% off sitewide

What made them stand out: Ashunta is the real deal in the celebrity makeup world having worked with countless A-List celebs like Alicia Keys, Rhianna, Zendaya, Kim K, and so many others. Her deep connections create a great marketing and endorsement opportunity. It’s also a common theme for successful makeup brands to be founded by celebrity makeup artists and later get acquired. Celebs look beautiful and thus consumers want to know how they get that look. Examples include Pat McGrath Labs ($2.2B), Charlotte Tilbury Cosmetics ($1.2B), Laura Mercier ($700M), Million IT Cosmetics ($1.2B) and Too Faced Cosmetics ($1.45B). All this is to say Ashunta is in a very advantageous spot to build the next big celebrity makeup artist driven brand. Very few folks hold this position which is ultimately her strong moat.

Request An Intro (Investors only)

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BāKIT Box

Founded by Shelley Gupta |‎‎‎‎‎ ‎‎‎‎‎📍Chicago — Shop  /  Instagram  /  TikTok  /  Linkedin

How We Met Them: Via their signup on the FirstLook.vc

One Liner ✍️ — STEM-based baking activity kits for kids

Discount Code: Use “ILOVEFIRSTLOOK” for 20% off sitewide

What made them stand out: I love BāKIT Box. It’s exactly what parents desperately need right now. Having recently become a father, I can tell you my little boy is already captivated with screens. All parents reading this are likely nodding their head right now thinking, “Just wait…it gets worse!”

BāKIT Box is the answer. They fill a unique gap in the market by combining cultural education, STEM-based learning, and baking into a family-focused experience that meets the growing demand for diverse and educational products. I love how it gets parents involved too which strengthens family bonds. I think BāKIT Box will become one of those startups that quietly reaches $30-50M in revenue in a few years. The timing (or “Why Now”) is on point, they’re solving a real pain point, and creating a memorable experience that people naturally want to share.

Request An Intro (Investors only)

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Beam

Founded by Mat Franken + Vanessa Holfert  |‏‏‎‎‎‎‎‏‏📍Portland — Shop / Linkedin

How We Met Them: Via an intro from Sara Brooks of Goldilocks!

One Liner ✍️ — Beam is the first full spectrum buttcare brand, covering cheeks to crevice, and everything in between.

What made them stand out: I liked Beam for two main reasons. First, they are waking up a very sleepy yet quite large category that hasn’t seen much of any innovation in 2+ decades. Their use of FDA-approved OTC medicinals also creates a substantive moat against competitors. Second, cofounder Mat is quite the jockey! The past 9 years he built the natural homecare and wellness products brand Annie Fannie into a profitable 8-figure revenue/year business which has since been acquired. Safe to say he knows his stuff when it comes to brand building and navigating all the landmines in eComm + wholesale. Beam is early, but they have all the right ingredients to go the distance.

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Sea Monsters

Founded by Jiae Kim + John Lee | ‎‎‎‎‎📍NYC - Shop  /  Instagram  /  TikTok  /  Linkedin

How We Met Them: Via my friend Ankit Agarwal!

One Liner ✍️ — Seaweed snacks for kids of all ages.

What made them stand out: This product actually tastes good. Lots of BFY brands using semi-exotic ingredients always seem to miss the mark on taste which is a hard-stop on ever becoming a winner. Sea Monsters uses seaweed in their puffs which I really can’t detect when I eat it. This means their puffs are more nutrient-dense, and they align with global trends toward sustainability. On top of a great product, Jiae and John are quite the duo. Jiae's background is in technology and design having worked at the lauded design firm, Pentagram. John previously served as the creative director for Pokémon and Equinox. Before starting Sea Monsters, they founded the branding studio EMEHT. All this is to say they have a very talented and balanced team which will help them do more with less. I 100% will be serving this to my son as he grows.

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Singular Care

Founded by Santiago + Ignacio  |‏‏‎ ‎‎‎‎📍NYC - Homepage  /  Instagram  /  TikTok  /  Youtube  /  Linkedin  /  Brand  Video

How We Met Them: Via their signup on the FirstLook.vc

One Liner ✍️ — Reshaping oral care through design and sustainability

Discount Code: Use “ILoveFirstLook” for 20% off sitewide

What made them stand out: I really like the “razor - razor blade” model that Singular Care has. That’s always an investor favorite. The product screams high quality when you hold it. It’s actually heavier than you’d expect which comes from using really high quality materials. For the 2 minutes of brush time I actually feel like a rich person. Singular Care also does a solid for the planet. The number of PLASTIC 🤢 toothbrushes throw out each year is disgusting. This brand solves that, and I was also happy to hear they have some IP around the product which creates a bit of a moat. If you’re in the need for a new toothbrush, I can’t recommend this one enough. Even the bristles part feels great on your teeth.

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Verse

Founded by Carlos Liverani + Chris Tracy + Vinny Patalano |‏‏‎ ‎‎‎‎📍Miami - Shop /  Instagram  /  Linkedin

How We Met Them: Via cold outreach!

One Liner ✍️ — Verse is a functional mixer beverage brand, our drinks are the fruit juices & tonics traditionally used in cocktail culture as mixers or mocktails, but healthier —zero sugar, enhanced with electrolytes, nootropics, and adaptogens so people can celebrate tomorrow's dreams.

What made them stand out: So much to love here. First, the team is stacked. Carlos, Chris, and Vinny all have specialties that create balance team to divide and conquer. Second, they made breakthroughs in formulation regarding the mechanism that ingredients are delivered and absorbed into the body. Love me some good science.

Lastly, I like their launch strategy. They’re going after key on-prem accounts such as clubs and bars where the influential types hang out. Think Tau in NYC, or E11EVEN in Miami. Getting the right folks to back a drink brand is crucial, but tough to achieve. Luckily this team is well connected and hustles hard. If things go according to plan, I think they will become that darling we all wish we put a small check into early. Also, how about these bottles?! Absolutely stunning.

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That's all she wrote folks. October box is next. Keep on building my friends.

Thanks from the FirstLook Team- Brian and Adedeji 

This email was proofread by my lovely wife, Michele. Please buy her stuff here and here. We’re NO LONGER saving up to welcome our first born into this world, but instead need to buy more diapers now :)